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Introduction

The Berkeley Oil Independence Task Force ("Task Force") is a citizen advisory body tasked with the responsibility of assessing Berkeley's vulnerability to peak oil and gas and making recommendations regarding how to mitigate anticipated impacts and transition to a post-oil economy. (See Appendix A for background on Task Force members). The Task Force convened in January, 2008, pursuant to Resolution 63944 passed by the City Council on December 18, 2007.

A fierce debate is taking place among petroleum geologists as to when oil production will hit its peak and then begin a permanent decline. A growing number believe we are already at peak production and that, in a year or two, the world will no longer produce enough oil to meet rising demand. The majority predict a peak somewhere between now and 2010, while a rapidly shrinking minority believe the peak will be 2020 or later. The release of the International Energy Agency's "World Energy Outlook" in November, 2008, is yet another wake-up call informing us that the day is rapidly approaching when supply can no longer keep pace with demand. The supply of natural gas too is expected to fall short of demand within ten to fifteen years.

Extreme oil market volatility during 2008 should be seen as a wake-up call: Low-income residents were hit with soaring gas and food prices, a double blow that is likely to recur when the market starts feeling the effects of announced OPEC production cuts coupled with recovery from the current recession.

Gas prices may be down for the moment, but not for long. Energy economists see price volatility as a strong signal that we are at or approaching the peak. Regardless of when exactly we hit the peak, the precautionary principle dictates that we act quickly to avert the potentially devastating consequences of an energy crisis that catches us unprepared. The risk of doing nothing (or of doing too little, too late) far outweighs the risk of acting prematurely or overly aggressively, especially in light of the many co-benefits of making a transition toward a post-carbon future.

A growing concern among industry insiders is the potential for a run-on-the-bank scenario in which spot gasoline shortages cause panicked consumers to top of their tanks. Such behavior would result in the total depletion of refined gasoline stocks within one week, leaving the trucking industry unable to transport food to cities.

Two federal government reports on peak oil (in 2005 and 2007) have urged the government to undertake a crash mobilization twenty years ahead of time. The International Energy Agency echoed this clarion call with the release of its pessimistic "World Energy Outlook" in November, 2008. As with climate change, the federal response to these reports has been close to nil, prompting local governments to launch their own peak oil preparedness programs. Peak oil task forces are active in dozens of U.S. cities, including Oakland, San Francisco, Portland, Denver, Bloomington, Austin and Sebastopol. Most of these task forces are official government entities, not citizen advisory groups. (The Oakland Task Force Report was completed in December, 2007. The San Francisco report is expected sometime this spring). Perusing the reports issued by various task forces around the country, a few common themes emerge—(1) Peak oil has the potential to wreak havoc on economic and agricultural systems; (2) in light of federal and state inaction, it is incumbent upon local government to avoid and mitigate the consequences of an energy crisis; (3) the need for bold, creative thinking and leadership is manifest; and (4) there is very little time to act.

Although local governments do not have unlimited power and resources, careful planning will allow them to buffer their residents from the most catastrophic impacts. At the same time, individuals, businesses, and community-based organizations have important roles to play in building local resilience—from reducing personal oil consumption to patronizing local, green businesses to building neighborhood support networks that will help vulnerable residents weather the coming storm, we all have to commit to weaning ourselves from lifestyles that are dependent on large amounts of fossil fuels.

Over the course of the past year, the Task Force has analyzed how energy shortages and price spikes could affect Berkeley residents' access to food, water, health care, and transportation. This analysis was completed in two stages: (1) Fact gathering: Task Force members consulted with dozens of individuals employed by government agencies, public utilities, the school district, area farms, the Berkeley Ecology Center and other NGOs, community gardens, health care providers, and businesses. The Task Force also collaborated with the San Francisco Peak Oil Preparedness Task Force and reviewed the report of the Oakland Oil Independence by 2020 Task Force; (2) Public stakeholder consultations: The Task Force presented its findings to the public at a forum at the Ecology Center on January 8, 2009. Citizens who attended the January forum supported the overall goals and specific recommendations set forth in the report, with one attendee recommending that the City hire farmers to cultivate edible urban gardens and another expressing concern about lead contamination of Berkeley soil.

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