Open or download the full paper here. Below is a selection from the paper. -Ed.

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The Best of Times

The World in 2030 – Take 1

Imagine a world where governments agree a robust global deal on climate
change.
The 2009 Copenhagen agreement is the first step, setting out a broad framework
for emissions control.1 A green ‘new deal’ helps the world tackle the global
economic downturn and pushes investment in clean tech into top gear.2 By 2012,
detailed negotiations have triggered a wave of institutional innovation, at global,
regional, national and local levels.3
From that date onward, a price for carbon is set and emissions are traded
globally.4 Growing numbers of countries take on binding targets, with carbon
markets providing finance to help poorer countries develop along a low carbon
pathway.5 Forests and other sinks receive investment in return for the ecosystem
services they provide.6 Adaptation funding is used to make countries more
resilient to all the climatic threats they face.7
As a result, global emissions are already ten years past their peak in 2030, and
have fallen to more than 10% below today’s levels.8 The world is gradually
converging on equal per capita emissions.9 By mid-century, the average
American is projected to emit a tenth of the carbon they do today, and Chinese
per capita emissions will have fallen by half. Meanwhile, Brazilian emissions will
have risen for a time, but then fallen back to 2009 levels, and the average
Haitian will still be below the global average, but receiving some cash in
recompense.10
There’s been some friction along the way. In 2030, the carbon market is big
business, trading over $5 trillion annually, as part of a global financial system
extensively remodelled after the depression.11 But the price has been volatile,
creating systemic instability that the International Carbon Fund struggles to
contain.12 In spite of this, the US, European Union and Japan have managed to
maintain some unity within an increasingly assertive G20, while the new powers
(China, India, Brazil) have assumed enhanced rights and responsibilities on the
global stage.
Non-state global networks, meanwhile, have continued to grow in influence,
while a new commitment to subsidiarity has strengthened the hand of provincial
3
and local actors. The nation state has not disappeared, but it has a growing
number of rivals on the international stage.13
The climate, of course, is still warming. The IPCC has just published its eighth
assessment report, with a headline finding that emissions will stabilize around
465ppm CO2e, leading to eventual warming of 2.6ºC above pre-industrial
levels.14 By 2030, the world has already warmed by about 1ºC (a rise locked in
by 20th century emissions).15 The impact of this is obvious for all to see. The
climate has become less dependable; floods, famine and drought have all
increased in frequency and severity.16
In general, however, communities have proved surprisingly resourceful and
innovative – both in reducing emissions, and in coping with a changing climate.
Top down political action has been met and matched by an effective bottom-up
response. The 20th century’s climate legacy may have presented the world with
its greatest market failure, but the 21st century seems to be up to the task of
designing and implementing a collective response.17