Post Carbon Cities

Skip to content

AN INITIATIVE OF POST CARBON INSTITUTE

News

Global oil supply will peak in 2020, says energy agency
fbirol_100.jpg
Published 15 December 2008 by The Guardian (original article)

Fatih Birol, chief economist to the International Energy Agency, told the Guardian that conventional crude output could plateau in 2020, a development that was "not good news" for a world still heavily dependent on petroleum.

Published 15 December 2008 by The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/dec/15/global-oil-supply-peak-2020-prediction

[This is an EXCERPT: read the whole article here, and about George Monbiot's interview with Fatih Birol here. -Ed.]

by Terry Macalister and George Monbiot

Fatih Birol, chief economist to the International Energy Agency, told the Guardian that conventional crude output could plateau in 2020, a development that was "not good news" for a world still heavily dependent on petroleum.

The IEA has never before been specific about the point at which so-called conventional oil would peak. It said last month that total crude output could peak in 2030. Birol's comments follow other signs that the IEA is rapidly changing its view. In its 2007 World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicted a rate of decline from the world's existing oil fields at 3.7%, only to admit 12 months later that the speed of the fall was more likely 6.7%.

Jeremy Leggett, chief executive of solar energy company Solarcentury, said Birol's views underplayed the scale of the problem. "The IEA is very constrained in what it can say - by the demands of its constituent governments - so you have to read between the lines. We believe that peak oil will come about in 2013 at the latest but the real concern from the IEA is the adjustment of production figures," he said.

Three years ago the Paris-based organisation still denied there was any fundamental threat to the world's petroleum economy.

Photo source: © IEA.org

FAIR USE / FAIR DEALING NOTICE: This site contains copyrighted material, the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to advance understanding of certain public interest issues per the 'fair use' provision of United States Copyright Law section 107 and the 'fair dealing' exception of Canadian Copyright Act section 29.


© 2009 Post Carbon Institute

Post Carbon Cities: Helping local governments understand and respond to the challenges of peak oil and global warming.
Post Carbon Cities is a program of Post Carbon Institute, a 501(c)3 non-profit organization incorporated in the United States.
Login