[For more about the NJTPA symposium, read the whole newsletter here. Audio of Lerch's talk is available here. -Ed.]

If America’s cities are to thrive in a future of energy and climate uncertainty, policymakers must start making fundamental changes regarding transportation and land use planning, according to Daniel Lerch, a program manager with the Post Carbon Institute (PCI).

Lerch, a Rutgers University graduate, is the author of Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty, the first major municipal guidebook on peak oil and global warming. The Oregon-based nonprofit PCI’s mission is to encourage and assist leaders in swiftly ending society’s reliance on fossil fuels.

Because of the way America set up its infrastructure over the last 60 years, it’s impossible for most people to do something as simple as buy a loaf of bread without burning gas in a private car, Lerch said.

"If we can’t change that, then everything we do—converting our traffic lights to [energy-saving] LEDs, putting green roofs on city hall, all of these great things that more and more cities are doing—none of that will matter," he said. "It’s the transportation-land use connection that is key."

Lerch attributed America’s peak oil problem to three main factors:

• The era of easy oil is over. Discoveries of oil supplies peaked in the 1960s and are plateauing today, even as demand continues to rise.
• "Difficult" (or unconventional) oil won’t fill the gap. Sources like deep-water oils and tar sands present serious logistical issues and their supply potentials are uncertain.
• What’s left isn’t ours to buy. Consumption is rising in industrial nations like India and China. Producing nations may also want to keep their supply for their future generations.

Greatly complicating matters, there is currently no viable substitute for oil, he said. In order to stop contributing to global warming and break dependence on oil, local governments must cut their consumption and produce goods locally whenever possible, he said. Oil permeates every aspect of American life, and that reliance leaves our economy vulnerable in many ways, Lerch said.

"We assume it’s going to be there tomorrow, and next year, and five years and 10 years down the road, and we also assume it’s going to be affordable. If we could not make those assumptions, we would make very different decisions about our planning and infrastructure investments," Lerch said.