by Carol Etnier

The United States responded to the 1973 oil crisis in many ways, including gasoline rationing, a 55 mph national speed limit and a year-round daylight-savings time. If oil production really has peaked and is entering a permanent decline, shortages like those of 1973 may be around the corner. How are we prepared to respond?

The short answer is that we aren't, either at the federal or the state level. The U.S. Government Accountability Office concluded in a report earlier this year, "... there is no coordinated federal strategy for reducing uncertainty about the ... timing (of peak oil) or mitigating its consequences."

In Vermont, things are no better. A doctoral student, after interviewing top officials in Vermont state government, recently concluded that the state has no reliable response to peak oil.

At the local level, we're seeing only the beginnings of a response. Many cities and towns have energy teams, knit together in the Vermont Energy and Climate Action Network. The Brattleboro Select Board has appointed a Peak Oil Task Force, which is drafting a report on the town's vulnerability to peak oil. On Tuesday, the Middlebury Select Board began considering its own task force.

Even if oil producers manage to boost currently stagnant production, it is past time to prepare for a decline. It takes a long time to smoothly change how much oil we use to heat our homes, power our transportation system or bring food to our tables. The authors of a 2005 report to the U.S. Department of Energy calculated that a smooth transition to an energy-scarce world would take two decades of work, sustained at the level of effort that put Americans on the moon. Only the rosiest estimates of peak oil's timing give us 20 years. In fact, the costs of globally tight oil supplies are already being felt by Vermonters whose budgets are stretched to heat their homes and put food on the table.

Many of the provisions in the Energy Affordability and Climate Change bill, passed this year by the Legislature and vetoed by Gov. James Douglas, were useful responses to peak oil. The proposed all-fuels efficiency utility would have taken the edge off of increasing oil prices. A year ago, a report commissioned by the state Department of Public Service showed that a $15 million investment per year over 10 years would yield $450 million in fuel savings. It looks like the savings were grossly underestimated, as they were calculated with oil prices projected to be $44/barrel now and dropping to $38/barrel by 2015. With oil near $100/barrel and expected to keep trending upward, the Energy Affordability and Climate Change bill is a better investment than ever. As the world squeezes less oil out of the ground each year, reduced energy use will be a fact of life, like it or not. Will Vermonters be prepared, or will we be forced into painful sacrifices? Without weatherization, owners of a typical old home may run out of fuel, creating a health hazard for the very old and very young. If the all-fuels efficiency utility helps the owners fully weatherize the home, it can be kept toasty with 75 percent to 90 percent less oil use. Doesn't it make sense to work toward weatherizing every Vermonter's home in the next 10 years?

The Energy Affordability and Climate Change bill is an important first step, but it's not nearly enough. Declining oil availability is likely to have effects that reach into every sector of our economy and society. The GAO report mentioned earlier put it starkly: "an imminent peak and sharp decline in oil production could cause a worldwide recession."

Take tourism, an enormous engine in Vermont's economy. As gasoline prices go from $3 to $5 or $10 a gallon, how many tourists will visit Vermont? Burr Morse, the seventh-generation Vermonter who runs the Morse Farm sugar works, store, cross-country ski area, and mountain-bike area in East Montpelier, is already thinking about how to re-invent his business to be resilient in changing times. "I get a lot of my income from customers who fly into New York and travel up here on diesel-powered busses," he notes. What plans does the state have to help workers and employers in the ski industry, restaurants, B&Bs and hotels, and other parts of the tourist industry transition to work that serves local demand?

Declining oil production puts contradictory pressures on the state's agriculture. On the one hand, it pushes up prices for feed imported from the Midwest, tractor fuel, fertilizer and expenses. On the other hand, high fuel costs make local food more competitive with food trucked into the state. How can the state help export-oriented dairy farms transition to producing and processing foods for local markets?

Emergency responders at the state and local level need to assess how to respond to sudden disruptions in oil supply. With little or no reserve production capacity in the world, a single hurricane, war, terrorist attack or even labor strike could lead to acute oil shortages like we saw in 1973. How are we prepared to ensure that police, fire and other key services get the fuel they need? If long-distance trucking is disrupted, how long will we have enough to eat? Where will people live in January if there is too little fuel to heat all homes? We need these questions to be part of state and local contingency planning.

A lot of preparedness for peak oil will come down to neighbors helping neighbors. We will be in better shape if we plant victory gardens with enough to share, get to know our neighbors better through Neighborhood Watch groups and neighborhood block parties or monthly potlucks, and otherwise strengthen our local communities.

We also need strong leadership in local, state and federal government. Ever-higher oil prices and long-term declining oil availability comprise a challenge of a magnitude we have never faced before. Are our leaders ready to address it?