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Summary

The City of Hamilton is engaged in a major planning exercise for the period until 2031, embracing most aspects of municipal responsibility. Questions have arisen as to how much regard the exercise should have for possible steep increases in the prices of oil and natural gas during the planning period, and what form the regard might take. This report responds to these concerns.

Two price points are taken to illustrate ‘very high fuel prices’: $4.00/litre for gasoline/diesel fuel and $2.00/cubic metre for natural gas (in today’s dollars). Both are about four times current all-in prices paid by end consumers. There is a more than even chance that prices will reach such levels during the planning period, even during the first half of the period. Prices will reach these high levels because worldwide and North American production of these fuels will fall far short of desired consumption, and substitutes will not be available in sufficient quantities.

Stable high prices can be regarded as an optimistic outcome of forthcoming convulsions in world and North American energy markets. Alternatives—including low prices arising from a glut in fuels—could be associated with economic and social collapse.

Experience elsewhere suggests that little will change until fuel prices reach two or three times current levels. Most journeys will continue to be made by cars as we know them. Most activities will occur in buildings such as we have now. Patterns of energy production and consumption be similar to now, with more energy continuing to be used in buildings than for transport. However, more will be spent on fuels by individuals and businesses—and less on other goods and services—offset to a degree by improved efficiencies. Above threefold increases, particularly when prices reach $4/L for transport fuels and $2/m3 for natural gas, there will be major changes in society, and energy will be a key factor in all decision-making.

The prospect of such high prices provides imperatives to reduce energy use substantially, shift energy use from fossil fuels to renewable resources, and generate as much energy as possible locally. The concerns would be for the City’s operations and for every facet of life and business in Hamilton.

Reasonable planning objectives could be to lower energy use in Hamilton by two thirds and generate most of what is used from renewable resources and waste materials. Implicit in this energy transformation would be extensive use of geothermal resources and district energy applications for heating and cooling buildings and electric traction for vehicles. Energy sources would include the widest array of renewable production of electricity, cold and hot water, steam, and biogas.

Given the likelihood of such high prices, energy use and production could become the organizing principle of the City’s strategic planning, particularly for land use, transport, and economic development. Land uses would be arranged so as to strike balances between maximizing energy production—e.g., from solar arrays— and minimizing in-building energy use and associated energy use for transport. The movement of people and goods would be guided towards use of radically less energy and towards being powered more by electricity than by fossil fuels.

In engaging in planning of various kinds, the City of Hamilton is exercising one of its principal roles: that of a community builder that seeks to sustain the economic, social, and environmental welfare of Hamilton’s residents and businesses. The City has another relevant role: providing services many of which consume fossil and other fuels. The present report also touches on how this role can be exercised in an era of energy constraints, focussing on the City’s transit system and its vehicle fleet. As well, in response to City Council’s direction, the report touches specifically on the aerotropolis proposal and on freight transport issues.

As a leader in facing future energy realities, Hamilton would be well positioned to become Canada’s research and development hub for the new energy paradigm with emphases on local power generation, electric transport, low-energy buildings, and associated information technology. The main focus would be on the use and production of electricity, to be the main fuel in the era of energy constraints.

In the 1880s, Hamilton was one of the first cities in the world to have widespread electric light—for streets, homes, and businesses. It was known as ‘The Electric City’. Hamilton could again be ‘The Electric City’, in the forefront of the transition to electric transport and new electricity generation.